What might the Russia-Ukraine peace plan look like?

Talks to agree a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine appear to be making significant progress after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said negotiations were beginning to become “more realistic”.

“Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed the proposed deal in full for the first time on Monday,” two people involved in the talks told the Financial Times (FT). Others taking part in the negotiations said the prospect of a “ceasefire and Russian withdrawal” are on the table if Kyiv “declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces”.

The agreement is currently in the form of a “15-point draft”, according to the paper. “However, the nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security – and their acceptability to Moscow – could prove to be a big obstacle to any deal.”

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Awkward truce

Hopes mounted this week of a breakthrough in the ongoing peace talks after Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said an “Austria-like” compromise could deliver a peace between Russia and Ukraine before a full-scale assault on Kyiv is launched.

“This is a variant that is currently being discussed and which could really be seen as a compromise”, Peskov was quoted as saying by the state-owned RIA news agency, as reported.

Five people briefed on the talks told the FT that the deal would “involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey”.

Obstacles, however, include “the status of the country’s territories seized by Russia and its proxies in 2014”, the FT said. “A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian security failed to prevent the Kremlin’s aggression against its neighbour.”

The agreement, which is being mediated by Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, would likely “allow Ukraine to keep a standing army”, The Telegraph reported. Peskov’s comparison with Austria reflects “a similar 1955 pledge” that “convinced the Soviet Union to end the decade-long occupation of Austria after the Second World War”.

Vienna “declared itself permanently neutral that year, leading to the Soviet Union agreeing to an end to its occupation”, the paper added. But it also “promised not to join any military alliance, such as Nato, and to never host foreign military bases on its soil”.

Officials in Kyiv are also “sceptical” Putin is “fully committed to peace” amid concerns Moscow “could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its offensive”, the FT reported.

One official told the paper: “There’s a likelihood this is trickery and illusion. They lie about everything. Crimea, the build-up of troops on the border and the ‘hysteria’ over the invasion. We need to put pressure on them until they have no other choice but to agree to a peace deal.”

Stumbling blocks

The compromise over Ukrainian neutrality “has the potential to meet one of Vladimir Putin’s key demands”, The Telegraph said, namely “that Ukraine never joins Nato”. But “other Russian demands will prove hugely problematic for Kyiv”.

This includes “Russia’s demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region”, the FT reported. Two people involved in the talks said Moscow is also demanding “provisions on enshrining rights for the Russian language in Ukraine”.

Shortly after the FT published the terms of the negotiations, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Zelenskyy, tweeted: “FT published a draft, which represents the requesting position of the Russian side. Nothing more. The Ukrainian side has its own positions.

“The only thing we confirm at this stage is a ceasefire, withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees from a number of countries.”

Newsweek described the terms outlined by the FT as “just a list of Russian demands”, while Sky News added that the apparent breakthrough in peace talks came as “Moscow continues its assaults on Kyiv and other major cities”.

Ukraine last night “accused Russian forces of bombing a theatre where civilians were sheltering in the besieged southern city of Mariupol”, the BBC said. Deputy mayor Sergei Orlov told the broadcaster that 1,000 to 1,200 people had sought refuge in the building.

President Zelenskyy yesterday appeared to hint that Ukraine would never join Nato as a concession in the peace talks. Speaking to members of the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force via video link he said the likelihood that his country would not become a member of the military alliance was a “truth” that “must be recognised”.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov also raised hopes of a deal, telling RBC News: “The negotiations are not easy for obvious reasons. But nevertheless, there is some hope of reaching a compromise.

“Neutral status is now being seriously discussed along, of course, with security guarantees,” he added. “This is what is now being discussed at the talks. There are absolutely specific wordings and in my view, the sides are close to agreeing on them.”