After previously losing three Rugby World Cup finals, can France finally end the jinx by lifting the Webb Ellis Cup for the first time? Or can South Africa successfully defend the trophy they lifted in Japan in 2019? These questions will be answered over the next seven weeks when France hosts the 10th edition of the men’s Rugby World Cup.
Twenty nations will feature in the tournament with 48 matches taking place in 10 locations: Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Nantes, Nice, Paris, Saint-Denis, Saint-Etienne and Toulouse.
The action gets under way on Friday 8 September when the host nation faces New Zealand’s All Blacks in a mouth-watering opening fixture at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis. After the group and knockout stages, the showpiece final will then be held on Saturday 28 October, also at the Stade de France.
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Who will win the Rugby World Cup? It’s “wide open”, said The Guardian, with several teams “capable of going all the way”. South Africa are the defending champions and “history strongly suggests” that it will be the Springboks or New Zealand who lift the trophy. France are “heavily fancied” too, along with Ireland, the Six Nations grand slam champions and the world’s No 1-ranked team. England, who were “soundly beaten” by South Africa in the final four years ago, have had a “far from ideal” build-up, with a first defeat by Fiji last month “regarded as a new low”.
Many pundits have pointed to the wide-open contest between four teams – France, Ireland, New Zealand and South Africa – who are “a cut above the rest”, said Benjamin Dodman on France24. Most analysts agree that France’s “2023 vintage is their best yet”, striking an almost “perfect balance” between the “French flair” of old and a “tighter, more disciplined” style.
If they don’t perform well, the pressure on France “could be inhibiting”, former England hooker Brian Moore said in The Telegraph. However, if they play well and the “groundswell of opinion in France supports them”, it could be a “very invigorating factor”. If France do make it, “I think they’ll win – although I don’t really like saying that”. Rarely has a host nation “felt a greater sense of approaching destiny”, said Robert Kitson in The Guardian, who tips France to beat South Africa in a “blockbuster final”. On a “highly charged” Saturday night in Paris, “are the hosts really going to be beaten?”.
South Africa and the Rugby World Cup are “made for each other”, said Stuart Barnes in The Times. When it comes to the World Cup, they are the “most successful side in the world” and like New Zealand, “they have conquered the world on three occasions”. The Springboks “rise to the occasion” with a game plan that is “hard to beat”.
In a poll of the 80,000+ strong RugbyPass fanbase, rugby fans worldwide think “this will be New Zealand’s year”. It was by a “sizeable margin”, too, with the All Blacks being the “top team in a whopping 34%” of fans’ predictions. Former Scotland international Jim Hamilton, who is one of RugbyPass’ creative directors, believes there will be a repeat of the 2011 Rugby World Cup final, but France will “get their revenge” and win against New Zealand.
Despite New Zealand’s record 35-7 loss to South Africa in August, All Blacks fans can “take heart from statistical modelling that has them as favourites” to win the World Cup, said economist Niven Winchester on The Conversation. According to Rugby Vision, an algorithm Winchester developed to “predict outcomes” for major rugby competitions, New Zealand have a “33.5% chance” of winning their fourth RWC title. The “next most likely champions” are South Africa (26.2%), France (20.6%) and Ireland (11.9%).
Writing on the BBC, Opta’s Nick Bentley agreed that there are four sides heading into the tournament who are “almost perfectly matched” – and “then there are the rest”. Using thousands of data points and its AI supercomputer to simulate the Rugby World Cup 10 million times, Opta’s tournament predictor makes Ireland favourites with a 21.7% likelihood of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup, followed by France (21.4%), South Africa (20.5%) and New Zealand (20.2%).
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Siya Kolisi captained South Africa to glory in 2019
(Image credit: Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Rugby World Cup fixtures and TV coverage
The entire Rugby World Cup will be broadcast live by ITV in the UK, with games shown on ITV1, ITV3 and ITV4. All the matches can also be streamed for free on ITVX. All times below are BST.
Pool A fixtures
8 September: France vs. New Zealand (Stade de France, Saint-Denis; 8.15pm, ITV1)
Mike Starling is the former digital features editor at The Week. He started his career in 2001 in Gloucestershire as a sports reporter and sub-editor and has held various roles as a writer and editor at news, travel and B2B publications. He has spoken at a number of sports business conferences and also worked as a consultant creating sports travel content for tourism boards. International experience includes spells living and working in Dubai, UAE; Brisbane, Australia; and Beirut, Lebanon.
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